>>> with only three days left before the official start of the 2012 election process, who has the most to win and lose in iowa ? and what do these late surges by ron paul mean from the front rurer mitt romney . for more on that, we turn to cnbc's white house correspondent john harwood . good morning.
>> good morning, amy.
>> we're just days away . who do you think has the best shot ?
>> look, mitt romney is in the best position of any candidate by far. he's leading by 20 points in new hampshire. that's the state he has to win. that's the one he hopes will slingshot him to the remaining primaries in south carolina and florida. but if he's the candidate who can come out of iowa with the late momentum, which seems to be indicated by the nbc marriage poll, it's terrific for him. even if he loses to ron paul , ron paul is not somebody who has the capacity to expand his support enough to win the republican nomination. he has a niche within the republican party . he can hold that niche. but it's not clear that he can expand it, so mitt romney doesn't appear to be facing any rival right now with the votes fractured among conservatives who can amass the support to win the nomination in the end.
>> so if ron paul does get that nomination in iowa , you say it's not a big of a setback?
>> exactly. i don't think ron paul has the ability to build on that. what some conservatives, newt gingeri gingerich, rick perry , has to hope others fall by the wayside. they can consolidate the conservative support. michele bachmann , herman cain , rick perry , newt gingerich . but all those have gone up and down.
>> john, you mentioned michellebamichellee bachma bachmann. last winter, she was the straw poll winner and now she's losing campaign staffers, her showing in the polls not great. any chance of redemption for michele bachmann ? and what happens after iowa for her?
>> it's hard to see michele bachmann doing well on caucus night or continuing beyond iowa . this is something who has been plagued with internal distension in her organization. she's had credibility issues on the stump. she was the first flavor of the month with that straw poll victory, but she hasn't shown the staying power , the stature, the credibility as president of the united states to hold that support and build on it.
>> and we should mention newt gingerich showing an emotional side yesterday. does this have any impact with voters? he had that surge, now seems to be losing a lot of traction. does this make a difference?
>> i think, amy, anytime a candidate can show the human side and not the robotic candidate on the stump saying what you're supposed to say, a side of your personality and your life, that's a positive thing for a candidate. but if you turn on the television here in des moines , you see newt gingerich pounded hour after hour from negative ads from the super pac that mitt romney supporters are financing. that is a heavy toll that has knocked down his poll numbers here. his poll numbers are down nationally. he has a real struggle, especially because he doesn't have ta deep of an organization here in iowa .
>> john harwood , we appreciate your analysis. thanks so much. happy new year.
Source: http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/45833507/
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